* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 06/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 34 33 26 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 34 33 26 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 10 9 7 8 16 21 28 25 35 55 60 SHEAR DIR 350 341 340 354 347 272 295 306 313 291 278 275 266 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 131 125 120 117 107 103 101 102 105 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 61 61 58 54 54 47 44 40 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -4 -8 -5 11 11 29 26 27 19 15 -11 200 MB DIV 20 26 19 17 23 37 8 -11 -25 0 25 49 42 LAND (KM) 1427 1515 1588 1680 1786 2007 2199 2246 1978 1715 1430 1118 829 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.4 122.1 123.8 125.5 128.7 131.5 134.1 136.7 139.2 141.9 144.7 147.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 17 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -6. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 0. -5. -11. -16. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 06/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 06/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY