* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 06/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 11 9 6 13 20 34 32 41 52 65 56 SHEAR DIR 339 340 350 346 300 284 267 303 297 276 265 256 250 SST (C) 27.1 26.5 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.0 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 123 117 112 104 96 96 96 99 101 100 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 58 59 56 53 49 45 40 36 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -24 -21 -16 -1 14 32 30 33 27 10 -31 200 MB DIV 28 18 15 18 34 3 3 -13 -4 -1 32 47 58 LAND (KM) 1415 1487 1568 1677 1799 2004 2217 2058 1770 1508 1211 927 711 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.8 17.5 18.8 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 121.3 123.0 124.8 126.5 129.7 132.6 135.6 138.3 140.8 143.5 146.0 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 17 17 16 15 14 14 12 13 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -16. -21. -26. -31. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 06/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 06/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY