* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 42 49 54 61 64 67 66 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 42 49 54 61 64 67 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 30 33 35 37 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 17 19 15 12 10 13 8 14 13 17 20 SHEAR DIR 10 26 34 32 35 46 9 17 352 9 30 26 20 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 149 149 149 151 153 153 150 146 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 75 74 73 73 73 73 69 71 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 -3 -1 0 -4 -13 4 2 29 46 55 66 200 MB DIV 79 47 49 48 51 58 23 63 78 99 82 76 57 LAND (KM) 907 945 959 959 967 1006 1053 1077 1101 1127 1171 1204 1179 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.1 97.3 98.4 99.6 100.7 102.9 105.1 107.2 109.1 111.1 112.8 114.4 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 9 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 7. 10. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 33. 40. 43. 46. 44. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 29. 34. 41. 44. 47. 46. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY