* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 52 58 66 69 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 52 58 66 69 67 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 32 33 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 14 15 15 9 9 10 11 10 11 13 19 29 19 SHEAR DIR 12 27 40 20 352 12 44 47 55 53 64 74 77 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 154 155 153 147 142 139 137 132 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 77 79 71 76 69 70 65 68 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 12 15 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -7 -17 -27 -27 -28 -17 -3 10 30 46 47 200 MB DIV 57 68 61 48 27 25 7 43 67 88 34 53 33 LAND (KM) 834 816 816 829 843 871 917 953 1055 1146 1217 1329 1490 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.3 100.5 101.6 102.7 103.8 106.0 108.2 110.2 112.3 114.7 117.3 119.9 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 13. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 33. 42. 46. 45. 42. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 32. 38. 46. 49. 47. 45. 43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY