* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/25/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 44 52 60 64 66 63 64 60 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 34 44 52 60 64 66 63 64 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 31 33 33 32 31 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 11 9 9 9 6 10 14 18 18 21 17 SHEAR DIR 20 21 19 7 6 28 65 32 56 76 76 95 85 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 156 154 148 139 136 136 135 130 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 76 79 80 76 74 73 72 68 66 60 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 10 13 15 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 -13 -24 -29 -30 -27 -16 -7 15 29 48 49 200 MB DIV 49 45 26 11 32 26 18 37 58 39 39 34 59 LAND (KM) 794 799 805 819 823 855 898 961 1059 1130 1253 1392 1560 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 102.3 103.4 104.5 105.6 107.6 109.6 111.5 113.6 115.9 118.4 121.0 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 11. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 35. 41. 44. 42. 41. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 24. 32. 40. 44. 46. 43. 44. 40. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/25/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/25/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY