* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/26/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 37 47 55 59 59 63 62 61 60 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 37 47 55 59 59 63 62 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 29 29 28 26 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 14 15 12 11 11 10 SHEAR DIR 10 22 18 3 6 13 47 56 72 66 67 68 102 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 155 149 138 133 131 127 120 106 95 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 76 72 75 68 74 64 64 62 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 15 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -26 -29 -33 -35 -31 -33 -19 -16 22 46 41 45 200 MB DIV 58 32 13 26 34 19 32 23 62 33 43 45 48 LAND (KM) 750 759 769 764 776 818 861 957 981 1105 1253 1471 1687 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.9 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.6 105.7 106.7 108.7 110.7 112.8 115.1 117.7 120.7 124.0 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 14. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 26. 31. 34. 39. 39. 37. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 35. 39. 39. 43. 42. 41. 40. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY