* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/26/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 46 55 62 66 66 61 57 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 46 55 62 66 66 61 57 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 41 42 41 39 36 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 5 7 4 6 6 10 11 14 5 12 2 SHEAR DIR 20 27 20 48 42 53 50 64 51 77 100 147 221 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.6 24.1 22.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 148 138 134 133 130 122 106 93 82 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 77 78 71 74 66 65 63 61 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -21 -20 -26 -27 -29 -22 -2 8 28 39 43 15 200 MB DIV 27 45 56 57 38 34 25 35 26 27 51 79 29 LAND (KM) 826 831 849 872 892 938 1013 1050 1190 1344 1577 1768 2008 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.7 16.3 17.0 18.1 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.5 111.4 113.5 115.8 118.4 121.5 125.0 128.7 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 16 18 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 8. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30. 35. 37. 34. 31. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 37. 41. 41. 36. 32. 32. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED