* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 58 61 61 58 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 52 58 61 61 58 58 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 38 39 39 39 38 36 33 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 6 6 6 7 12 13 18 16 18 18 14 SHEAR DIR 15 22 53 38 19 59 60 78 46 85 88 87 125 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 151 147 143 138 135 136 135 127 120 117 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 77 75 73 73 71 67 65 61 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -28 -30 -36 -29 -30 -3 17 40 45 54 46 200 MB DIV 41 59 63 49 25 33 14 33 52 60 74 75 28 LAND (KM) 850 874 907 926 958 1060 1105 1195 1369 1562 1791 2020 2266 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.9 108.9 109.9 110.8 112.8 114.9 117.1 119.8 122.8 126.0 129.2 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 11 10 12 14 15 15 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 28. 33. 34. 32. 31. 30. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 36. 36. 33. 33. 32. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY