* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 06/26/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 53 49 45 38 32 26 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 53 49 45 38 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 34 32 29 24 19 SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 7 6 2 4 3 8 8 15 14 21 22 SHEAR DIR 170 180 166 181 278 183 127 127 123 144 156 182 244 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.4 22.9 22.1 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 138 134 126 123 118 108 93 85 83 84 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 73 68 63 62 57 50 46 44 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 28 32 22 23 35 39 62 65 59 49 0 -43 200 MB DIV 66 81 61 62 70 63 49 68 37 20 -4 -12 -13 LAND (KM) 1568 1609 1653 1682 1717 1792 1882 1977 2090 2226 1980 1705 1488 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.8 18.3 20.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.1 124.8 126.5 128.4 130.6 133.1 136.0 138.5 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 15 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 24. 26. 23. 19. 12. 6. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 27. 28. 24. 20. 13. 7. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 06/26/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 06/26/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY