* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP942008 06/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 39 46 49 53 50 51 49 52 50 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 39 46 49 53 50 51 49 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 27 26 26 25 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 5 6 8 13 17 15 17 11 16 12 12 SHEAR DIR 43 58 48 28 41 46 75 50 79 78 112 112 134 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.3 26.1 25.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 147 144 141 137 136 138 136 128 126 124 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 73 72 75 69 71 68 68 66 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 9 11 11 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -25 -29 -37 -31 -35 -27 -4 16 34 40 43 31 200 MB DIV 58 59 47 17 27 17 29 28 44 62 92 65 50 LAND (KM) 891 921 943 966 1000 1094 1138 1297 1498 1707 1946 2176 2371 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.9 109.9 110.8 111.7 113.7 115.7 118.1 121.0 124.0 127.1 130.2 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 22. 22. 23. 22. 25. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 21. 24. 28. 25. 26. 24. 27. 25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP942008 INVEST 06/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942008 INVEST 06/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY