* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 06/27/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 46 44 38 32 23 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 46 44 38 32 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 6 1 5 3 8 4 14 14 19 21 18 SHEAR DIR 169 176 179 179 170 131 145 149 140 183 178 218 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 25.9 25.4 24.6 23.0 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 134 129 122 117 110 94 81 78 74 67 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 72 66 66 62 54 50 43 49 46 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 21 22 29 30 48 53 48 35 -22 -56 -83 200 MB DIV 72 65 66 73 81 57 60 41 28 34 23 16 13 LAND (KM) 1591 1624 1648 1676 1710 1777 1860 1942 2046 2176 1946 1796 1806 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 17.2 18.9 21.0 23.2 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.7 123.6 125.2 126.9 128.9 131.3 134.0 136.2 137.9 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 15 14 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 17. 12. 5. -4. -10. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 21. 19. 13. 7. -2. -8. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY