* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWO EP022008 06/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 38 42 45 45 45 44 44 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 38 42 45 45 45 44 44 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 22 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 6 10 14 19 20 21 19 14 7 10 11 SHEAR DIR 56 63 27 44 46 51 67 75 85 86 83 77 88 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 145 142 140 138 140 141 138 132 134 135 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 74 75 73 74 73 71 69 71 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -37 -35 -37 -39 -28 -13 14 32 30 37 48 200 MB DIV 51 37 18 16 22 16 24 19 49 62 99 63 96 LAND (KM) 908 929 955 997 1048 1143 1246 1448 1654 1878 2123 2336 2469 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.5 110.5 111.5 112.4 114.4 116.6 119.4 122.3 125.2 128.1 130.6 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 10 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 20. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 23. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 TWO 06/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 TWO 06/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY