* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 06/27/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 34 37 38 36 29 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 34 37 38 36 29 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 2 3 5 6 15 7 9 8 11 8 8 SHEAR DIR 179 192 167 169 125 112 126 141 148 189 203 244 346 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.2 22.8 21.9 21.6 21.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 131 127 121 115 105 91 82 79 77 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 72 69 67 66 60 53 49 44 49 45 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 13 14 20 31 36 53 58 38 22 -20 -61 -61 200 MB DIV 60 57 67 75 79 70 49 49 14 -4 0 29 -15 LAND (KM) 1618 1649 1676 1701 1731 1810 1895 1973 2066 2187 1945 1766 1710 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.6 20.2 21.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.6 122.5 123.3 124.1 125.8 127.6 129.6 131.7 134.0 136.2 138.0 138.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 5. -1. -6. -10. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 11. 4. 0. -5. -9. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY