* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP822008 06/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 60 64 63 60 42 16 10 18 22 27 30 28 19 SHEAR DIR 256 259 255 254 262 265 52 104 143 153 163 161 174 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 104 104 105 107 108 108 110 111 115 118 122 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 -54.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 50 47 42 39 40 32 33 36 38 32 25 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -34 -47 -59 -64 -83 -93 -95 -67 -50 -27 0 7 200 MB DIV -5 -6 -6 -25 -19 -12 -18 3 -27 3 2 -25 -9 LAND (KM) 733 634 540 481 429 358 326 292 234 170 87 80 20 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.0 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.8 149.7 150.4 151.0 152.1 152.9 153.4 154.0 154.6 155.6 156.9 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 4 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -27. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -34. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -30. -30. -31. -29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 INVEST 06/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 41.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822008 INVEST 06/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY