* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 46 48 50 49 47 45 48 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 46 48 50 49 47 45 48 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 43 44 44 40 37 34 33 33 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 13 17 17 26 24 15 10 8 9 13 10 SHEAR DIR 60 40 31 42 37 60 55 67 106 157 133 145 122 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 142 141 137 136 138 138 136 130 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 72 74 68 70 66 63 60 61 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -34 -35 -36 -38 -38 -26 -12 -5 15 38 51 61 200 MB DIV 19 11 2 4 -2 12 -12 54 47 59 57 63 92 LAND (KM) 873 882 895 945 1000 1112 1151 1259 1409 1537 1621 1768 1966 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.6 14.0 14.0 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 110.0 110.9 111.7 113.9 115.6 117.4 119.2 120.9 122.7 124.7 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 10 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 13. 11. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 14. 12. 10. 13. 12. 13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY