* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 06/27/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 35 37 32 25 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 35 37 32 25 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 5 3 5 15 8 9 7 4 7 7 15 SHEAR DIR 191 154 178 105 87 123 140 138 174 232 299 22 37 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.5 24.9 23.4 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 130 126 124 118 112 97 86 80 80 79 77 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 65 63 57 51 49 46 39 41 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 8 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 18 29 32 48 62 56 35 -6 -34 -56 -52 200 MB DIV 53 60 61 65 77 56 48 11 10 -11 0 -1 -21 LAND (KM) 1641 1677 1719 1757 1800 1891 1973 2072 2176 2036 1820 1649 1559 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.7 123.6 124.5 125.3 127.1 129.0 131.2 133.2 135.4 137.4 139.1 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 7. 1. -5. -9. -12. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 7. 0. -5. -8. -10. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY