* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME CP822008 06/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 63 64 60 46 27 10 7 19 21 32 30 25 16 SHEAR DIR 257 254 254 261 260 276 91 133 156 160 160 165 179 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 104 105 106 107 109 111 112 114 117 120 124 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 46 42 39 40 37 29 35 35 36 28 27 27 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -56 -59 -68 -86 -87 -93 -59 -41 -9 5 -1 200 MB DIV -1 -4 -24 -17 -14 -19 -9 -9 -32 -14 -7 -27 -1 LAND (KM) 670 582 497 430 369 290 242 190 126 69 56 39 22 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5 22.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.3 150.1 150.8 151.5 152.6 153.4 154.2 154.9 155.6 156.6 157.8 159.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -29. -30. -31. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -27. -27. -27. -25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 NONAME 06/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 40.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822008 NONAME 06/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY