* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 53 52 48 46 44 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 53 52 48 46 44 43 43 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 55 55 52 47 42 39 37 36 36 35 SHEAR (KTS) 8 14 16 19 22 23 27 16 15 12 9 11 12 SHEAR DIR 19 16 41 28 40 46 58 98 163 191 176 174 167 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 137 136 136 137 137 138 136 131 127 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 73 68 73 67 65 62 61 59 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -36 -40 -41 -40 -34 -28 -9 7 42 45 72 81 200 MB DIV 24 17 6 -2 0 10 -8 29 64 87 77 103 96 LAND (KM) 845 870 900 950 1004 1110 1176 1270 1394 1522 1631 1731 1838 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.8 111.6 112.3 114.1 115.7 117.3 119.1 120.8 122.6 124.0 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY