* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032008 06/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 41 37 32 28 25 21 18 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 41 37 32 28 25 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 32 29 26 23 21 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 8 3 5 14 8 6 4 1 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 340 166 112 85 116 127 122 119 82 159 346 90 343 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 24.5 23.3 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 127 124 122 119 108 96 89 87 89 90 93 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 62 60 57 54 51 46 43 41 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 15 18 28 36 41 57 68 63 49 15 -9 -11 -12 200 MB DIV 62 60 64 83 79 72 40 15 15 3 -19 -13 -30 LAND (KM) 1667 1701 1738 1792 1849 1957 2058 2187 2137 1885 1644 1437 1245 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.4 124.2 125.2 126.1 128.0 130.2 132.4 134.7 137.0 139.2 141.1 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 4. 0. -5. -9. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 THREE 06/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 THREE 06/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY