* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 06/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 34 31 26 23 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 34 31 26 23 20 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 8 3 6 13 7 6 4 1 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 340 193 122 85 127 126 131 119 93 159 338 90 343 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.4 23.2 22.5 22.4 22.7 22.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 126 123 122 117 107 95 88 86 89 90 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 61 60 55 54 51 46 43 39 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 28 35 40 56 66 62 46 12 -11 -12 -13 200 MB DIV 62 59 63 83 77 70 40 15 13 3 -19 -13 -31 LAND (KM) 1652 1689 1730 1780 1834 1933 2043 2180 2133 1881 1641 1447 1256 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.3 124.2 125.1 126.0 127.9 130.1 132.4 134.7 137.0 139.2 141.0 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 06/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY