* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * TBTEST CP832008 06/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 34 32 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 34 32 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 39 37 34 28 24 21 19 18 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 63 66 53 41 30 18 13 18 21 26 35 36 29 SHEAR DIR 253 253 260 253 244 234 178 190 206 185 187 185 174 SST (C) 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 103 105 107 109 112 115 118 121 124 128 129 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -55.2 -54.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 39 34 32 36 39 35 32 30 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -47 -44 -45 -50 -65 -76 -66 -41 -22 -19 -26 -36 200 MB DIV 7 -17 -9 -8 -27 -11 -14 -7 -13 -23 -15 -20 -1 LAND (KM) 607 539 473 392 312 168 108 22 4 19 90 251 434 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.0 149.7 150.3 151.1 151.9 153.5 154.8 156.3 157.8 159.2 160.5 162.0 163.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP832008 TBTEST 06/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 38.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP832008 TBTEST 06/28/08 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART