* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 55 56 52 51 47 45 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 55 56 52 51 47 45 43 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 50 50 47 43 40 38 37 37 37 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 15 17 20 21 25 11 11 9 14 11 15 SHEAR DIR 10 35 20 28 34 46 75 101 98 158 165 175 161 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 135 135 134 136 137 137 135 131 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 72 71 74 66 67 63 61 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -41 -44 -41 -36 -35 -16 0 15 30 26 48 63 200 MB DIV 32 13 -2 -1 18 -1 12 40 51 66 81 89 82 LAND (KM) 879 915 955 1020 1055 1110 1203 1308 1415 1516 1615 1723 1839 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.1 111.8 112.7 113.5 115.0 116.5 118.0 119.5 121.0 122.5 124.0 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 7. 6. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY