* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032008 06/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 40 40 37 31 26 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 40 40 37 31 26 25 24 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 30 28 26 23 21 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 6 6 14 9 13 10 11 12 12 8 6 SHEAR DIR 198 144 144 145 136 120 99 63 38 28 42 94 145 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.3 24.3 23.6 23.5 23.7 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 123 122 120 119 116 106 99 98 100 104 108 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 63 59 60 54 50 50 48 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 12 9 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 20 34 42 46 56 65 48 30 18 26 19 200 MB DIV 56 57 77 81 79 46 26 38 27 6 1 -19 -11 LAND (KM) 1672 1715 1761 1814 1869 1994 2151 2319 2130 1903 1695 1463 1217 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.1 124.9 125.8 126.6 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.2 137.4 139.5 141.8 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 10. 11. 8. 3. -3. -5. -6. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 10. 10. 7. 1. -4. -5. -6. -7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 THREE 06/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 THREE 06/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY