* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/28/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 44 41 39 36 37 35 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 44 41 39 36 37 35 32 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 38 34 32 30 29 29 28 28 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 20 21 22 22 19 15 12 9 14 12 18 SHEAR DIR 38 25 27 34 44 56 79 110 143 163 153 158 157 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 133 132 132 133 133 135 134 131 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 75 69 67 64 63 59 61 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -39 -38 -36 -32 -25 0 11 38 30 36 42 65 200 MB DIV 20 0 -5 7 10 3 20 37 77 63 70 73 57 LAND (KM) 963 991 1013 1024 1038 1102 1157 1272 1403 1517 1623 1761 1909 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.4 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.5 114.1 115.4 116.5 118.1 119.9 121.7 123.3 125.0 126.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -1. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -8. -10. -13. -12. -14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY