* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032008 06/28/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 36 37 36 32 25 23 21 21 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 36 37 36 32 25 23 21 21 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 20 18 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 7 10 11 7 17 14 10 4 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 177 120 147 143 129 85 82 77 86 77 87 133 195 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.0 24.1 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 121 120 120 120 119 113 104 100 100 102 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 62 61 63 62 62 60 55 53 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 11 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 34 40 43 36 34 31 29 18 13 24 13 200 MB DIV 66 79 71 64 53 26 25 25 26 8 12 -27 -11 LAND (KM) 1655 1703 1753 1814 1876 1982 2090 2237 2266 2039 1824 1591 1362 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 128.0 129.6 131.6 134.0 136.2 138.3 140.6 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -6. -8. -10. -11. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 THREE 06/28/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 THREE 06/28/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY