* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 39 37 35 35 33 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 39 37 35 35 33 31 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 41 37 34 32 32 32 32 31 29 SHEAR (KTS) 14 20 21 19 21 21 10 10 6 16 17 22 20 SHEAR DIR 19 21 36 37 37 64 76 32 245 228 210 191 172 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 132 132 133 132 131 129 126 120 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 75 75 69 66 62 65 62 60 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -34 -30 -29 -21 -3 14 24 26 29 42 56 84 200 MB DIV 15 16 31 33 25 29 29 38 71 90 77 94 70 LAND (KM) 980 996 1017 1050 1090 1189 1298 1375 1449 1554 1699 1813 1913 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.3 115.2 116.0 117.4 119.0 120.2 121.2 122.7 124.7 126.1 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 6 8 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY