* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 37 35 33 30 25 23 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 38 37 35 33 30 25 23 22 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 37 37 37 35 32 30 27 25 23 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 1 2 6 9 5 12 11 10 4 8 3 2 11 SHEAR DIR 121 89 154 151 126 115 88 91 51 91 68 215 233 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.0 24.3 23.8 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 118 118 118 113 105 100 100 101 103 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 54 54 56 54 54 54 52 51 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 42 43 37 35 50 44 25 15 20 12 8 200 MB DIV 61 50 61 49 37 19 32 34 29 20 -15 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1714 1766 1821 1880 1937 2060 2229 2318 2132 1936 1702 1501 1333 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.3 126.1 126.9 127.6 129.3 131.5 133.5 135.3 137.2 139.5 141.5 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY