* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 37 33 33 32 31 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 37 33 33 32 31 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 36 33 32 32 32 32 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 16 21 21 23 24 16 11 5 2 13 18 16 18 SHEAR DIR 19 36 52 52 60 62 44 43 328 191 184 175 165 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 132 130 127 122 117 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 73 68 65 60 61 60 63 59 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -32 -31 -20 -10 14 23 37 26 45 68 77 69 200 MB DIV 4 22 32 24 9 33 50 68 71 71 104 75 41 LAND (KM) 978 1002 1032 1073 1118 1222 1323 1435 1575 1709 1843 1933 2014 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.6 118.2 119.8 121.5 123.3 125.0 126.7 127.9 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY