* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 42 39 35 29 25 24 24 23 22 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 42 39 35 29 25 24 24 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 44 45 44 41 38 34 30 27 25 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 5 11 11 5 5 14 11 8 5 4 1 5 11 SHEAR DIR 70 130 138 104 100 94 71 90 25 116 124 260 251 SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.4 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 119 118 116 107 100 99 99 102 106 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 61 57 54 58 57 52 52 49 49 46 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 39 42 42 44 55 58 44 43 28 27 18 19 200 MB DIV 55 59 51 34 32 18 26 21 32 8 -19 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1753 1807 1864 1937 2000 2151 2326 2180 1988 1793 1567 1368 1187 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.7 127.7 128.6 130.5 132.8 134.8 136.7 138.6 140.8 142.8 144.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY