* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 40 37 32 28 29 27 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 40 37 32 28 29 27 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 38 34 30 28 27 26 26 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 20 22 26 28 29 16 15 4 5 9 16 13 14 SHEAR DIR 41 51 56 62 79 80 83 23 109 170 159 174 174 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 131 127 120 116 115 113 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 72 67 64 59 59 57 57 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -26 -15 -8 -3 17 21 32 25 36 23 42 46 200 MB DIV 22 25 11 -6 -3 5 30 67 95 109 67 43 23 LAND (KM) 1002 1042 1090 1136 1186 1302 1420 1521 1630 1762 1923 2020 2058 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.8 117.6 119.3 121.4 122.9 124.3 125.9 128.1 129.3 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 9 8 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY