* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 44 40 35 30 25 22 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 44 40 35 30 25 22 21 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 49 48 47 43 38 34 31 28 26 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 9 10 13 7 9 5 8 5 6 12 14 SHEAR DIR 112 119 108 103 117 94 95 70 76 140 201 233 246 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 119 119 119 118 117 111 104 100 98 100 103 108 108 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 53 59 58 54 54 52 49 51 50 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 36 41 40 61 49 46 30 27 21 20 12 200 MB DIV 50 48 32 35 22 34 47 44 30 -6 -4 -10 -15 LAND (KM) 1788 1851 1915 1974 2036 2183 2322 2084 1844 1640 1463 1265 1048 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.6 127.4 128.3 129.2 131.2 133.4 135.7 138.0 140.0 141.8 143.8 146.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY