* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 39 36 33 31 31 29 29 26 21 20 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 39 36 33 31 31 29 29 26 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 37 33 30 28 28 27 26 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 24 27 28 28 23 18 8 6 13 11 13 13 20 SHEAR DIR 54 55 57 71 72 71 92 80 146 152 165 168 180 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 131 131 130 125 119 114 113 113 112 108 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 69 62 62 59 57 56 55 56 51 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -16 -12 2 20 24 35 42 60 56 65 60 200 MB DIV 14 4 -7 -9 1 27 54 75 76 81 54 41 30 LAND (KM) 1023 1061 1103 1156 1214 1320 1425 1528 1648 1773 1887 1982 2058 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.5 117.4 118.2 119.9 121.6 123.1 124.7 126.2 127.6 128.9 130.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -3. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -13. -15. -14. -18. -23. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -16. -16. -19. -24. -25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY