* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 37 37 32 27 24 20 20 20 21 23 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 37 37 32 27 24 20 20 20 21 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 25 22 21 19 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 9 12 12 11 11 9 8 3 7 8 12 SHEAR DIR 108 102 111 120 104 85 89 72 109 128 214 255 243 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.6 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 121 120 116 109 105 104 103 107 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 54 58 58 59 56 54 55 54 51 52 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 10 11 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 35 39 52 44 33 33 16 17 19 15 12 200 MB DIV 45 34 51 40 40 22 14 10 5 -24 -5 -2 -16 LAND (KM) 1860 1919 1975 2055 2136 2322 2268 2057 1834 1635 1458 1296 1123 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 127.9 129.0 130.0 132.1 134.2 136.3 138.5 140.5 142.3 144.0 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -9. -14. -15. -19. -20. -21. -20. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -3. -3. -8. -13. -16. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY