* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 41 40 37 38 38 36 31 28 27 28 V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 41 40 37 38 38 36 31 28 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 30 30 29 27 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 24 26 26 23 20 12 4 10 10 16 14 13 15 SHEAR DIR 57 59 67 67 67 85 100 132 134 137 156 158 174 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 131 129 124 118 115 113 113 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 71 65 64 64 58 60 56 53 52 49 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -10 -8 2 7 11 30 40 54 55 67 63 66 200 MB DIV 11 1 -10 5 12 17 64 63 84 57 55 44 15 LAND (KM) 1068 1115 1165 1214 1267 1367 1477 1583 1695 1804 1888 1997 2144 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.6 117.3 118.1 118.9 120.5 122.2 123.7 125.1 126.4 127.5 129.0 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -13. -17. -18. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY