* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 38 37 35 35 30 28 27 25 26 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 38 37 35 35 30 28 27 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 35 33 32 30 29 28 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 22 22 21 21 21 13 11 13 13 16 14 14 13 SHEAR DIR 56 71 71 64 68 85 113 146 120 131 128 147 146 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 132 132 130 123 120 118 117 117 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 65 62 62 58 57 55 54 51 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 6 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 1 3 3 13 21 36 48 74 88 91 86 200 MB DIV 14 -2 -2 -4 9 26 63 74 65 64 50 41 37 LAND (KM) 1125 1184 1245 1294 1335 1447 1539 1614 1668 1748 1855 1937 1986 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.5 118.3 119.0 119.7 121.3 122.6 123.6 124.4 125.3 126.6 127.6 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -9. -14. -16. -17. -20. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -15. -17. -18. -20. -19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY