* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 26 23 19 17 19 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 26 23 19 17 19 21 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 17 17 16 SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 8 7 5 7 12 10 6 2 4 17 24 SHEAR DIR 124 143 124 105 98 87 63 87 99 122 223 206 229 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.7 25.0 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 121 117 110 106 105 105 110 113 112 110 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 57 56 59 55 55 53 53 54 52 49 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 54 56 52 38 34 21 14 10 1 1 -7 200 MB DIV 57 53 42 36 28 23 8 9 -30 -14 -20 -23 -36 LAND (KM) 2000 2068 2138 2229 2322 2255 2034 1813 1600 1386 1169 978 803 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.9 129.8 131.0 132.1 134.4 136.6 138.8 140.9 143.1 145.5 147.7 149.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY