* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 06/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 42 53 61 65 64 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 42 53 61 65 64 61 58 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 40 44 46 45 43 41 38 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 3 6 2 4 7 8 9 10 11 14 17 SHEAR DIR 132 102 64 185 221 179 202 163 147 135 144 144 153 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.7 26.5 25.6 25.1 25.1 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 161 160 154 142 129 118 113 113 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 85 85 85 83 84 84 79 76 73 73 70 68 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 75 68 66 68 76 72 95 111 111 112 116 134 200 MB DIV 113 112 96 95 86 100 50 60 46 63 44 34 29 LAND (KM) 474 443 425 425 427 438 482 550 629 615 679 774 885 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.3 99.6 100.9 102.2 104.7 107.1 109.2 110.9 112.3 113.9 115.4 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 12 12 10 8 7 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 24. 32. 37. 37. 34. 31. 29. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 12. 17. 28. 36. 40. 39. 36. 33. 31. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 06/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 06/29/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED