* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 61 60 58 56 54 51 46 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 61 60 58 56 54 51 46 43 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 61 59 54 51 48 46 44 43 41 38 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 18 21 16 9 9 6 12 12 20 16 18 SHEAR DIR 70 60 54 64 74 68 129 199 141 152 160 168 157 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 132 127 125 123 120 120 120 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 66 65 65 63 63 61 58 55 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 6 9 6 2 10 17 36 42 87 92 93 75 200 MB DIV -5 -8 -7 1 0 43 66 80 63 98 85 57 20 LAND (KM) 1217 1276 1336 1393 1449 1536 1593 1668 1769 1850 1909 1992 2085 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.8 122.1 122.9 123.9 125.2 126.2 126.9 127.9 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 6 5 4 4 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -21. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY