* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 34 31 27 24 22 21 22 22 20 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 36 34 31 27 24 22 21 22 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 36 33 31 28 25 24 23 22 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 9 9 11 9 13 7 5 7 9 18 21 SHEAR DIR 126 120 93 111 111 98 97 88 100 175 192 224 240 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.3 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 120 117 109 105 104 106 112 113 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 60 56 58 55 49 51 52 51 43 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 56 59 57 48 40 29 24 24 17 15 15 2 200 MB DIV 60 56 48 31 34 35 19 0 -10 -6 -14 -32 -24 LAND (KM) 2066 2146 2229 2314 2401 2163 1909 1699 1512 1335 1118 930 763 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.7 130.7 131.8 132.8 135.3 137.8 139.9 141.8 143.7 146.0 148.2 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -18. -20. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY