* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 06/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 66 68 66 62 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 66 68 66 62 58 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 44 42 40 37 35 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 2 3 1 3 6 11 13 12 9 6 11 SHEAR DIR 39 11 188 301 19 159 134 129 122 122 135 153 168 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.5 27.3 26.2 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 159 151 137 125 116 112 110 108 99 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 9 6 6 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 87 85 85 85 84 83 77 76 71 72 67 69 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 64 61 62 56 64 79 86 88 109 97 99 118 200 MB DIV 116 100 104 98 95 76 61 51 79 56 17 41 9 LAND (KM) 470 439 437 442 449 452 495 588 615 618 646 706 763 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.3 100.6 101.9 103.1 105.5 107.8 109.8 111.3 112.6 113.8 115.1 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 35. 39. 38. 35. 31. 29. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 41. 43. 41. 37. 33. 32. 29. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 89% is 7.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY