* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 60 59 58 58 58 54 53 52 51 51 V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 60 59 58 58 58 54 53 52 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 60 59 57 53 50 49 47 46 45 44 43 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 19 13 9 8 7 10 13 11 12 15 11 SHEAR DIR 63 61 66 68 73 92 132 95 115 107 95 57 81 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 129 128 124 123 123 123 122 120 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 63 61 66 62 63 61 60 58 55 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 12 12 13 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 10 8 12 3 30 37 42 80 96 119 117 200 MB DIV 28 7 9 11 26 59 65 67 79 61 51 34 19 LAND (KM) 1298 1344 1388 1438 1490 1592 1706 1824 1928 1977 1946 2004 2098 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.1 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.7 120.4 121.1 121.8 123.1 124.3 125.6 126.7 127.3 127.1 127.7 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 1 1 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY