* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 31 27 24 23 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 31 27 24 23 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 37 36 33 30 28 25 24 23 22 20 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 9 11 11 12 13 8 6 9 20 16 14 SHEAR DIR 103 93 111 96 92 79 81 100 165 200 198 199 201 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 118 113 109 108 107 110 114 115 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 53 54 54 53 54 53 50 44 40 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 45 42 40 30 16 5 6 5 10 5 0 200 MB DIV 50 46 35 33 26 25 1 -27 -15 -33 -39 -50 -36 LAND (KM) 2132 2222 2314 2412 2303 2086 1890 1692 1504 1317 1133 992 882 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.6 131.7 132.9 134.0 136.2 138.2 140.2 142.2 144.2 146.2 147.9 149.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -17. -17. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY