* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 06/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 60 63 63 60 57 54 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 52 60 63 63 60 57 54 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 37 40 42 42 40 37 33 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 6 5 5 2 1 2 3 4 9 11 14 SHEAR DIR 352 335 341 2 11 57 116 151 150 151 145 151 140 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.3 27.2 25.8 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 160 158 148 136 121 110 106 103 103 100 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 7 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 84 84 83 77 74 72 69 67 67 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 62 65 64 74 68 78 84 101 99 91 73 72 200 MB DIV 89 86 102 105 76 54 62 46 50 25 52 34 24 LAND (KM) 467 433 425 419 417 407 422 487 513 509 525 584 649 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.7 101.0 102.3 103.5 105.7 107.6 109.3 110.5 111.7 112.7 114.0 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 33. 37. 37. 34. 31. 28. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 35. 38. 38. 35. 32. 29. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY