* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 51 51 49 47 47 47 43 39 38 38 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 51 51 49 47 47 47 43 39 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 49 48 45 43 41 40 39 38 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 8 6 6 9 7 13 9 14 14 17 10 SHEAR DIR 66 60 77 66 91 124 127 111 92 116 83 73 53 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 125 122 120 119 119 119 120 120 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 61 63 66 63 65 65 62 64 64 57 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 12 11 5 12 27 33 62 88 109 118 121 200 MB DIV 42 32 17 31 60 60 46 44 50 41 44 16 5 LAND (KM) 1369 1417 1467 1521 1576 1707 1810 1874 1907 1949 2000 2057 2115 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.1 124.6 125.7 126.4 126.8 127.3 127.9 128.7 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -10. -14. -16. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -12. -16. -17. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY