* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 23 20 17 17 18 17 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 26 25 23 20 17 17 18 17 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 22 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 6 9 9 7 7 3 9 19 33 33 31 SHEAR DIR 74 310 45 48 57 62 57 115 215 205 219 215 216 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 121 117 113 107 103 104 109 114 114 111 109 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 55 51 51 52 51 50 52 50 52 46 44 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 36 32 24 21 13 5 1 -1 3 -10 -1 200 MB DIV 53 33 45 28 36 25 1 -23 -17 -16 -52 -41 -31 LAND (KM) 2213 2314 2412 2308 2204 1991 1801 1633 1459 1281 1076 938 842 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.8 132.9 134.0 135.0 137.1 139.0 140.7 142.5 144.4 146.7 148.4 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 10 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -14. -15. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -13. -14. -15. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY