* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 06/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 66 65 62 60 58 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 59 66 65 62 60 58 57 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 36 36 35 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 12 11 14 11 12 9 9 8 13 11 8 SHEAR DIR 99 97 106 85 102 100 80 67 89 102 129 104 114 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 153 146 136 127 120 118 118 116 113 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 83 85 78 79 72 72 72 74 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 15 16 13 12 12 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 62 62 68 76 77 84 76 70 62 67 69 200 MB DIV 102 100 102 84 79 69 59 70 35 16 24 13 24 LAND (KM) 539 529 524 509 515 528 572 626 615 628 679 716 783 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.3 16.3 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.5 103.6 104.6 105.6 107.6 109.3 110.6 111.7 112.6 113.6 114.6 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 6 5 4 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 31. 39. 38. 37. 34. 32. 30. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 34. 41. 40. 37. 35. 33. 32. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY