* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 06/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 53 51 51 49 48 42 39 36 37 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 53 51 51 49 48 42 39 36 37 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 49 47 43 41 39 37 36 35 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 14 16 14 7 12 14 13 15 18 18 12 SHEAR DIR 65 74 72 88 89 132 65 112 106 109 100 112 112 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 123 122 121 121 122 121 119 120 121 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 66 65 65 67 66 65 61 55 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 16 12 13 27 28 34 50 62 79 80 72 200 MB DIV 52 22 15 40 59 53 19 41 31 9 7 6 6 LAND (KM) 1478 1542 1608 1664 1722 1817 1923 2007 2057 2093 2124 2161 2205 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.5 125.7 126.9 127.9 128.7 129.2 129.5 130.0 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -13. -15. -19. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -13. -16. -19. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 06/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY