* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * CRISTINA EP032008 06/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 21 22 24 25 24 24 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 21 22 24 25 24 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 22 20 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 8 10 13 13 6 5 7 19 23 28 27 SHEAR DIR 65 56 58 53 55 85 130 193 191 195 212 219 228 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 119 116 113 109 108 110 114 116 114 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 50 49 47 45 43 44 39 36 29 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 31 23 19 14 15 2 -2 1 -6 -19 -17 200 MB DIV 57 67 43 36 39 32 -17 -31 -32 -24 -32 -48 -33 LAND (KM) 2314 2408 2341 2239 2139 1943 1731 1548 1365 1189 1024 862 739 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.7 133.7 134.8 135.8 137.8 140.0 141.9 143.8 145.7 147.5 149.3 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032008 CRISTINA 06/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY