* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 06/30/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 60 58 54 52 47 47 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 60 58 54 52 47 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 33 32 31 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 14 13 8 15 17 14 16 12 12 8 6 SHEAR DIR 84 76 95 100 85 110 87 84 104 103 114 109 59 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 149 146 141 135 129 125 121 117 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 86 85 86 86 84 80 80 79 73 73 69 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 12 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 64 64 68 75 78 89 97 106 97 99 91 200 MB DIV 94 102 97 83 93 82 73 72 22 33 18 42 -2 LAND (KM) 581 591 615 626 645 649 640 614 638 609 618 652 737 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.3 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.8 109.7 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.6 113.9 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 352 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. 1. 3. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 32. 31. 28. 26. 21. 20. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 35. 33. 29. 27. 22. 22. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 06/30/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED