* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BORIS EP022008 07/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 61 61 61 58 57 52 47 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 61 61 61 58 57 52 47 45 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 60 59 56 52 48 45 43 41 39 37 35 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 14 14 10 5 12 9 11 13 17 15 19 SHEAR DIR 91 74 80 95 120 12 84 109 111 86 103 103 115 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 121 121 120 121 122 121 119 119 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 64 66 64 66 67 63 60 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 0 -1 9 24 19 35 43 51 71 69 58 200 MB DIV 40 7 15 45 63 49 32 39 30 7 -5 -8 -8 LAND (KM) 1556 1627 1699 1745 1793 1891 1958 2022 2072 2108 2130 2168 2221 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.4 124.2 124.8 125.4 126.6 127.4 128.2 128.9 129.4 129.7 130.2 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -7. -12. -14. -19. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -15. -19. -22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008 BORIS 07/01/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY